For my money, 2006 found the healthcare sector in sickbay. For much of 2006, the healthcare sector, particularly the biopharmaceutical
sector, found itself fighting myriad problems: anemic pipelines, widespread patent expirations; higher costs, and a slew of
legal and regulatory threats that saw no shortage of industry lawyers in the courtrooms and in front of Congressional panels
for much of the year. Not helping the industry was the election of a Democratic Congress, which triggered a four-point drop
in the American Stock Exchange Biotech Index in the days after the November election.
BUT THAT WAS THEN AND THIS NOW
With the stock market cratering in February, a recent series of iffy economic reports, and seemingly contrasting views on
the direction of the US economy between the current and former Federal Reserve Chairmen, healthcare looks like a strong defensive
play in 2007. Analysts project that the S&P Healthcare Index will post an earnings increase of 11% in 2007, compared with
5% profit growth for the S&P 500.
That, among other factors, could put a stake in a healthcare mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) in play—a good defensive
stance when investors are taking a hands-off approach to more aggressive sectors. More aggressively, as I'll point out in
a moment, is a healthy position in a private healthcare insurer or drug store chain now that Medicare Advantage seems to be
There's more to the healthcare sector than just bad economic news and a spat between Ben Bernanke and Alan Greenspan over
whether the US is headed for a recession or not. Sure, with US economic growth faltering a bit, a defensive sector like healthcare
should attract more attention. But there is also plenty of good news coming out of the sector in 2007, most notably:
- Strong valuations
- Tighter cost controls
- A slate of impressive new drug development pipelines
- Solid balance sheets.
A host of sector analysts see the same scenario I do.
Says Global Insight, the Boston-based analytical group: "Among the 10 sectors that comprise the US stock market, the healthcare
sector currently has the best attributes for an overweight position, from both the fundamental and risk perspectives. This
is due to the robust prospects for strong growth in earnings and free cash flow that result from positive demographics, new
technology, faster sales, and positive pricing power."
Much of the bullish attention on the sector is honing in on biotech, where the historically volatile industry seems to be
calming down and shaping up in 2007. "We see impressive pipelines and we've seen an increase in biotech's willingness to charge
and receive premium pricing," says Eric Schmidt, a managing director at Cowen who is bullish on healthcare this year.
A good, safe fund like the Vanguard Health Care Fund fits well in this increasingly rosy scenario. Fund manager Ed Owens is
a veteran, steady hand at the helm. He's been with the fund since 1984.
The guy knows the landscape. Take 2006—in a year when healthcare stocks underperformed relative to other key S&P Indexes,
Owens looked overseas to the fund's European and Japanese pharma holdings, such as Roche and Takeda Chemical, which helped
pump up returns and made the fund outperform last year. (The fund returned 10.87% last year, well ahead of its benchmark S&P
Adaptability is Owens' calling card, for example, the fund averages about 30% of its holdings from overseas companies, and
it has paid off handsomely over the years for fund investors.
PROWLING FOR PROFITS? THINKING CREATIVELY
Investors should also scour the landscape and think creatively when investing in healthcare this year.
Take the new Medicare drug plan that Washington belched out in 2004. At first glance, investors and prescription drug users
greeted the new Medicare plan like Yankee Stadium greets Manny Ramirez on opening day with a traditional Bronx cheer.