Steven Walfish

This article is the third in a fourpart series on essential statistical techniques for any scientist or engineer working
in the biotechnology field. This installment deals with statistical methods for calculating confidence intervals, tolerance
intervals, and capability analysis. The difference between the confidence interval and tolerance interval is explained.
In the last installment, the concept of hypothesis testing was presented. In hypothesis testing, we must state the assumed
value of the population parameter. In constructing intervals, on the other hand, we determine the range with a certain confidence
for the true population parameter. This confidence level is usually set at 95%, though you might also see intervals that are
99% or 90%. A confidence interval is used to estimate the population mean or standard deviation. A tolerance interval is used
to estimate the distribution of the individual values in the population. This distinction will become more apparent in the
discussion of capability analysis.
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
The amount of standard errors(s/√n) the observed mean is from the hypothesized population mean can be determined by hypothesis testing. The conclusion is either
the mean was statistically different or there was a lack of evidence to reject the null hypothesis. A similar analysis can
be performed using confidence intervals. If the hypothesized mean fits within the confidence interval, it is an indication
that the sample mean is not statistically different from the hypothesized mean. We will concentrate on the confidence interval
when the population variance is unknown. When the population variance is unknown, the tdistribution, which takes into account
the uncertainty in estimating the sample variance, is used. The tdistribution is tabled by confidence level and degrees of
freedom. The degrees of freedom are the number of observations used to estimate the sample standard deviation minus one. The
formula for the confidence interval is as follows:
in which X mean is the sample mean, t_{1α/2;n1} is the tvalue from the ttable with a confidence level of 1α and n1 degrees of freedom, s is the sample standard deviation used to calculate the sample mean, and n is the sample size used to estimate the mean and standard deviation. Using the protein concentration data from Part 2 of
this article series (BioPharm International, June 2008), a confidence interval can be calculated. Table 1 shows the data and calculations for the confidence interval.
If the theoretical concentration was thought to be 30, the 95% confidence interval shows that 30 is contained in the interval,
therefore the mean of 31.70 is not different from the value of 30.
Another way to look at the relationship between a confidence interval and hypothesis testing is to look at the hypothesis
test to determine if the observed mean of 31.70 is statistically different from 28.47 (the lower confidence interval). The
formula for the ttest would be:
Table 1. Data and calculations for the confidence interval

which gives the same value as the t_{0.95;5} in Table 1.
The confidence interval for the twosample condition is to develop an interval that determines if the difference between the
means contains zero. The approach is similar to the one used in the above formula. Some textbooks use a pooled standard deviation
(sp) when the population standard deviations are unknown, but assumed to be equal; and the samples sizes are small (under
30):